People with large amounts of debt demand high salaries (because they have to pay the debt) .
The bubble would burst when companies realize that they can pay someone who went to a trade school/bootcamp much less money, for a similar quality of work than that produced by the people with expensive degrees.
It is already starting to happen, with the insane amount of bootcampers that have appeared only in the last 3 years.
What is the market going to look like 3 years after NOW, when supply has glutted to an even more ridiculous degree?
(My experience is in the tech markets but I see no reason why this couldn't be the case for other job markets. We are the canary in the coal mine of what is to come )
Well, what will happen is that the market for new grad jobs starts to plummet, and all of a sudden those people who paid 200k are left with a fancy piece of paper, and no high paying jobs.
THEN is when things get even more interesting. Now these people with no high paying job start becoming unable to pay back their loans... At which point the whole thing comes crashing down.
The bubble is not just the college degree. It is the market and loans BEHIND the expensive piece of paper.
I have little idea if the current college situation is sustainable or not, but this argument sounds very similar to what we heard about outsourcing a couple of decades ago. Why keep paying all those expensive CS majors in the States when you can hire a smart person from overseas/bootcamp for fraction of the cost? Somehow we didn't quite get that malthusian glut last time.
People with large amounts of debt demand high salaries (because they have to pay the debt) .
The bubble would burst when companies realize that they can pay someone who went to a trade school/bootcamp much less money, for a similar quality of work than that produced by the people with expensive degrees.
It is already starting to happen, with the insane amount of bootcampers that have appeared only in the last 3 years.
What is the market going to look like 3 years after NOW, when supply has glutted to an even more ridiculous degree?
(My experience is in the tech markets but I see no reason why this couldn't be the case for other job markets. We are the canary in the coal mine of what is to come )
Well, what will happen is that the market for new grad jobs starts to plummet, and all of a sudden those people who paid 200k are left with a fancy piece of paper, and no high paying jobs.
THEN is when things get even more interesting. Now these people with no high paying job start becoming unable to pay back their loans... At which point the whole thing comes crashing down.
The bubble is not just the college degree. It is the market and loans BEHIND the expensive piece of paper.